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Last Post 04 Aug 2010 08:52 AM by  autox_vette
How we look at season points standings
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Windscreen
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29 Jul 2010 10:01 AM

    OK, time for a bit of a rant, due to a serious pet peeve of mine.

    Why is it, in Milwaukee and Chicago, where there are drop events, that people seem to prefer to look at results without drops until reaching event number (total # of events - # of drops + 1, in the case of Milwaukee, event #6)? To me, looking at results in that form is nearly meaningless, and without logic. In fact, it is so illogical to my engineering mind, that it makes me mad.

    Looking at results without the drops in play just makes the results largely a reflection of attendance until after all events are completed. If you are trying to figure out how well you have to do to finish the season in X place, you have a lot of damn math to do to see where those folks 1/3 of the way down in the results will be when the event they missed gets dropped. This is the very reason why I refuse to post season points until after event #4. Anything before that doesn't have significant meaning.

    Case in point. In the Milwaukee points, as of today, Fenter is shown in 32nd. If we looked at the points with all 3 drops effective, he'd be in 1st. Does anyone think 32nd place is where Chris is likely to finish the season? I'll take a $50 wager with anyone that wants to bet Chris finishes anywhere other than 1st for the year.

    So, teach me how you look at season points. Why do people seem to like to look at them in this (strange to me) way.

    -Steve

    cashmo
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    29 Jul 2010 12:28 PM
    The phrase "6 or 1/2 dozen of the other" comes to mind. You can look at it as posted and do the math to average a 5th event for Chris or you could look at the standings with 3 drops and guess what everyone will get on their remaining events (average?) to figure out where you'll stand. Neither is ideal. It seems you prefer the later but not all T/S pgms can print them that way mid season.

    Jeff
    rtp.rick
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    29 Jul 2010 01:44 PM

    I agree with Windscreen. When I did points up there, and the points I do here, always include some dropped events. There's no reason anyone should have to do that much studying. It should be at a glance. Otherwise, why even bother, just let everyone figure out the points for themselves. Apparently, that's what Mr. Cashmore does. [:D]

    Of course, it's sometimes difficult to get Axware to do some of the things we'd like to see.

    H's & K's,
    Rick Ruth

    MugenSI
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    29 Jul 2010 02:01 PM
    if you changed the number of drops early in the season, it would be better. The posting of the season points after event 4, with 3 drops based your standings on one event! So maybe after 4 events, configure one drop so it is based on three events; after 5 events, configure two drops, etc.
    rtp.rick
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    30 Jul 2010 02:37 AM

    I use the number of "dropped events", based on if the Series ended then. Scoring the best four of six, for example.

    H's & K's,
    Rick

    fenter
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    30 Jul 2010 05:07 AM

    I agree with Steve's preference. But realize that it may not be attainable easily.

    If we were to make this a fixed process something like this may be good:

    • No points posted until following the 4th season event.
    • Following event 4 show results with 1 drop
    • Event 5 with 1 drop
    • Event 6 with 2 drops
    • Event 7 with 3 drops
    • Event 8 as final with 3 drops

    Again, really no need to be this regimented, but this seems more ideal from my perspective. If there is something I can do to help in the tabulation of results let me know.

    In an off topic mention, were the Pro results scored in typical fashion or best run only?

    Chris

    BSTON
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    30 Jul 2010 07:06 AM

    This will probably really get to Steve. I imported them into excel and calculated everyone's average score and ignored anyone that only had 1 event in. I have no idea what doing that told me but it put Fenter back into first.

    Really for the rest of the season points aren't going to matter too much for me. After one more event, as long as I don't lose by 10+ seconds or something, I'm stuck in either 2nd or 3rd in the class. Overall I'm not breaking into the top 20 or anything so that's also a waste of time for me to look at.

    Mugenlude
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    30 Jul 2010 07:15 AM
    BSTON wrote:

    Really for the rest of the season points aren't going to matter too much for me.

    Season point concern for me stopped mattering... hmmm, well let's see.... pretty much the day Fenter arrived!
    BSTON
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    30 Jul 2010 07:30 AM
    Mugenlude wrote:
    BSTON wrote:

    Really for the rest of the season points aren't going to matter too much for me.

    Season point concern for me stopped mattering... hmmm, well let's see.... pretty much the day Fenter arrived!

    Yeah, he must have stripped all the weight out of that tiny mazda and installed a turbo or a v-8 or something. If my tires weren't heat cycled out I would be beating him.

    cbailey
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    30 Jul 2010 07:48 AM

    A schedule that includes the drops earlier than event 6 does make sense. There are probably good reasons to do it either way.

    I can definitely see the pure standings side of the argument and including the drops right away. The season points are really only "standings" when you take into account events that will definitely count at season's end. Thus, including the drops as early as possible is the most accurate reflection of where everyone stands at a given time.

    However, an interesting question is, what would happen if we had to call an event off due to weather or some such? Everyone gets a zero. Given the possibility of that, a rain event where standings get shaken up, or more likely someone just missing an event and scoring a zero, there are times when it would be advantageous to see where someone stands with all events included since each may end up being among their best 5. There are also slight chances that some of those people with 3 or 4 events in this year will have conflicts and not show up for the minimum five no matter how well they're driving.

    In the end, no solution will be perfect because you can't predict the future to know which five runs will count for a given person and make the intermediate results supremely meaningful. Thus, I don't see any harm in doing the season points either way, and in fact doing an intermediate schedule like what Chris suggests above is perhaps a good compromise that averages the likelihoods of any given run counting. People are going to sit around doing half-assed math and bench racing regardless!

    cbailey
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    30 Jul 2010 08:25 AM

    Let's see if this table formats... (EDIT: Also, I missed the drivers with only two events in, so no guarantee this is fully accurate.)


    1 Drop 2 Drops 3 Drops
    1 Fenter, Chris Fenter, Chris Fenter, Chris
    2 Canak, Andrew Canak, Andrew Jimmy
    3 Fiedler, Colin Shay, Chris Washburn, Pat
    4 Shay, Chris Fiedler, Colin Mankiewicz, Craig
    5 Mankiewicz, Craig Frank, Jason Canak, Andrew
    6 Bahr, Dale Washburn, Pat Frank, Jason
    7 Kuks, Jason Akad, Aytinc Shay, Chris
    8 Stefancic, Ken Mankiewicz, Craig Fiedler, Colin
    9 Moore, Marshall Jimmy Akad, Aytinc
    10 Moore, Brad Kuks, Jason Kuks, Jason
    11 Makus, Michael Bahr, Dale Stefancic, Ken
    12 Bailey, Chris Stefancic, Ken Bahr, Dale
    13 Moore, Zachary Moore, Marshall Moore, Marshall
    14 Hodge, Art Wynveen, Steve Wynveen, Steve
    15 Vanderstappen, Mike Moore, Brad Moore, Brad
    16 McKnight, Mark Makus, Michael Moore, Zachary
    17 Leeder, Mike Bailey, Chris Bailey, Chris
    18 Kiesgen, Ken Moore, Zachary Ma, John
    19 Karp, Sam Meschke, Steve Thompson, Eric
    20 Makus, Michael Thompson, Eric Makus, Michael
    Windscreen
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    30 Jul 2010 09:18 AM
    cbailey wrote:

    However, an interesting question is, what would happen if we had to call an event off due to weather or some such? Everyone gets a zero. Given the possibility of that, a rain event where standings get shaken up, or more likely someone just missing an event and scoring a zero, there are times when it would be advantageous to see where someone stands with all events included since each may end up being among their best 5. There are also slight chances that some of those people with 3 or 4 events in this year will have conflicts and not show up for the minimum five no matter how well they're driving.

    The possibility of a called off event, I'd say is less than 2%. Why plan for that contingency? For that matter, how does this idea actually accommodate that situation?

    You get three drops. Prior to actually finishing the next event, the most accurate statement we can make about one's performance is your worst three events so far will be dropped. Not zero, one or two. If you do worse than one of your three drops to date at the next event, then we'll add the best of those three back in.

    If it rains, and you're driving a 2WD SS/AS/BS car, sure you will do bad, and at that point you may plummet in the standings. But why try to make a guess; a non-real accommodation for that ahead of time by using an arbitrary number of drops, less than the season total number of drops? The only time I can see using less than 3 drops as a decent predictive tool, is if we assume a person's past rate of attendance is reflective of their future rate of attendance. My gut tells me that is probably not the case, but I don't have data for that one.

    And to Chris's prior post - I'd wager the 3 drop table is the closest to how the season actually ends.

    -Steve

    Windscreen
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    30 Jul 2010 09:20 AM

    MugenSI wrote:
    The posting of the season points after event 4, with 3 drops based your standings on one event!

    Why is that bad? I think that is a good thing. It is the most accurate statement we can make on one's standing at that point in the season.

    -Steve

    fenter
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    30 Jul 2010 10:46 AM

    Great arguements Steve, I am now fully on board with your veiw and second the motion! Or were we voting?

    Just add some smiley faces every once and a while so that people know you are not yelling. [:)]

    Updated season points suggestions:

    • Score points after every event with 3 drops
    • Benefit: this will make everyone feel great for the first three events of the year! We will all be tied!
    • Throw out all GS times until the season is complete [;)]

    Take care - Chris

    cbailey
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    30 Jul 2010 12:54 PM
    Windscreen wrote:

    The possibility of a called off event, I'd say is less than 2%. Why plan for that contingency? For that matter, how does this idea actually accommodate that situation?

    You get three drops. Prior to actually finishing the next event, the most accurate statement we can make about one's performance is your worst three events so far will be dropped. Not zero, one or two. If you do worse than one of your three drops to date at the next event, then we'll add the best of those three back in.

    That point about the drops carries weight definitely, since a rain event, cancellation, absence, etc. simply burns a drop. So, none of those contingencies changes the equation. Works for me. Sure, Chris Fenter might miss all three remaining events or become human again, but it isn't likely. [:P] (Trying to use Chris' suggestion about the smileys.)

    It's an excessively fine point, but we're talking in a way about whether the intermediate standings should reflect some type of "current standings" or try to predict the ultimate standings at year's end. Since by virtue of using drops we don't know what 3 events will be someone's worst until the last event, we are largely predicting the outcome. So, like you pointed out (and I agree) the three drops have a better predictive power concerning what the final results will look like. Let's go with that!

    So, yeah, 3 drops works for me. The only part that I could still see arguing would be the likelihood of any of the first four or five events counting such that so many are dropped, but, it would take a lot of stats and math to continue making this much much harder than it has to be, and, it just doesn't matter to me that much. [;)]

    autox_vette
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    04 Aug 2010 08:52 AM

    Hey Steve! Don't drag us in on this... [:)]

    For years, I've been including drops in the CR points during the season.

    The algorithm I use is #events * #drops / #scheduled events and then round that down to a whole number. (i.e. 1 drop for class with 3 events in the bank, 0 drops for overall). Seems to be the most logical to me.

    Maybe I should consider changing how I round....

    Kenton

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